New Report Claims To Know What Renal Denervation Market Will Look Like In 2021

In short

A new report says the global renal denervation devices market is expected to grow at the compounded annual growth rate of 139.7% through 2015.  The report, published by Research and Markets, says this is owing to increasing number of population suffering from hypertension. It’s probably a little more complicated than that though and is more likely to be a reflection of the adoption of this new therapy and its ultimate US approval.

Background

I get slightly irritated by market research companies churning out reports filled with grandiose claims that have about as much likelihood of turning into reality as they would if derived from a crystal ball. These companies operate on a simple model, and that model is not usually one that involves a deep understanding of the subject about which they are reporting. No, the factoids and trends that fill these reports come from a limited number of places, usually the industry itself; A researcher calls the marketing department, discusses market shares and future  trends then a month or so later kindly offers to sell them a report at huge cost, regurgitating much of what they and their peers told the research company.  I was once told, in such a report, that my business occupied 13% of its market in Norway… before we’d ever sold as much as a bean in Norway. Go figure.

Now, I haven’t bought this new report about Renal Denervation, published by “Research and Markets” and retailing for a mere $4.5k, so it would be unfair to lump it in with the body of reports that I’ve experienced over the years. In fact it looks from the summary to be quite a solid interpretation of the state of play. But there are hints of what I call “fluff” in there.  Fluff is my expression when reports drop into the stereotype of describing the bleeding obvious. You know the kind of thing: “….driven by an ageing population” is probably the worst offender in the cut-and-paste phrasebook.

This time the company has very astutely chosen to produce a report on the rapidly growing and very exciting new therapy area that is renal denervation. Now, as an afficionado in the subject you (and I) know that trying to unpick what the future holds for renal denervation is very difficult. The therapy has been proposed for resistant hypertension and is in current use for this across Europe. But it’s not approved in U.S yet, which simply must represent the biggest and most obvious sore thumb imaginable.

The summary goes on to say “This market is also witnessing the trend of increasing usage of minimally invasive procedures”…. what? That sentence is out of context and makes no sense at all.

and then; “however, preference for drug based therapy from patients may pose a serious challenge to the growth of this industry.”… again, what? Firstly what industry is being referenced here? And then, a preference for drug-based therapy compared with what exactly?

Let’s get this right. Renal denervation is just over ten years old and considerably less if you mark its appearance as the time when the first device appeared. It is indeed a minimally invasive procedure that is effective in even those patients for whom the drugs don’t work. In that sense, it’s an alternative to drugs rather than drugs being an alternative to it.

So, given that the therapy is new, and the devices are somewhere in the middle of a shakeout to decide which will own the real estate, it would indeed be interesting to know about the players and their offerings. And that’s what the report promises. In its own words; “The study comprises of a strategic analysis of the global market for renal denervation devices, and growth forecast for the period from 2012 – 2021. The scope of the report includes competitive analysis of various market segments based on the product, technology and in-depth scrutiny for different regional markets such as North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world.”

Wow, that’s a big call. Not the “today stuff”, although that’s tricky enough to unpick. No, the bit about the forecast to 2021. I’ve been following renal denervation for a couple of years and I’ll be honest I have no idea what it will look like by the end of this year. Ultrasound might just completely usurp Radiofrequency as more studies come out. Or indeed the opposite. The therapy itself may be embraced wildly, or it may not. In fact, it even seems the therapy has potential areas of application outside of hypertension.

There’s no doubt this report is detailed. It even offers the delights of a PESTLE analysis, which again sounds like a major challenge to do right.

I guess whether you buy it or not, depends on what you want it for and whether it serves a purpose. If you’re putting together a business plan and need your investors to see your supporting data, why not? Just be sure to take some of it with a pinch of salt. I’ll close with one example. Someone, somewhere has thought “high blood pressure!… Ah yes, that’s on the increase around the world. That’s why renal denervation will grow so quickly”.

And while that may be partially true, what’s definitely true is the fact that this new technology promises to better treat more of the existing hypertensive population than is currently achievable. That’s the salient fact that will drive growth.

Oh and this promised 139.7% CAGR for the next few years. By all means have a stab at it, but one decimal place… that’s a stretch. I’m not doubting the increment, just the likelihood of the forecast being that accurate. “More than doubling each year” would have worked just as well.

Source: Medlatest editorial, Research and Markets, Business Wire